Wednesday, April 11, 2018

The unwisdom of underestimating Putin/Russia

A Hasbarist commenter on Antiwar.com attempted to "smear" someone as a  "putin supporter".  Here's my reply:

Damn right, and proud of it. You deploy "putin supporter" thinking of it as some kind of smear. For me it is the hallmark of good sense, and a complement of the highest order.
The old anti-Commie cold war has been over for a quarter of a century, but you can never let it go because "those who cannot be mentioned here on Antiwar.com" cannot give up their thousand-year blood feud with the Russ.
What is anything other than right and smart about being a Putin supporter? He's the preeminent statesman of our time. Rational, careful, focused, prudent. Trying at all times to reduce tensions and seek stability. Also a strategic thinker of the highest order. Going up against Putin militarily is going to be the biggest mistake the US, UK, France, the Saudis, and Israel ever made.
I anticipate that Putin will deter any attack by finding a way to convince the "coalition" of the self-defeating nature of trying to turn around their Syria defeat by doubling down with a military escalation.
While I believe the idea that Russia/Putin interfered in the 2016 Presidential election to be a total fabrication, nevertheless, if he did, and if he managed to defeat HRC and elect Trump, then I thank him for that. (Although, at this point, with war looming, it may not have worked out all that well. But that's on the Deep State and Neocon psychopaths, and the brainless left, not on Putin.)
Just so you understand what Putin ***could*** do....
First, he puts every last one of Russia's nuke forces on hair-trigger alert and begins reactivating all nukes currently in storage. Then he puts all Russian citizens on a nuclear war footing, in particular preparing the country's civil defense readiness.
Then there are three deterrent steps Putin can take. In order of severity:
(1) Obliterate or threaten to obliterate the Saudi oil production facilities. Nine billion fewer barrels of oil per day drives the price of oil to $400/barrel, plunges the Western economies into chaos and hugely benefits Russia/Iran/Venezuela.
(2) Destroy the US satellite fleet -- not a single drop of American blood shed -- making the US military blind, deaf, and unable to communicate or coordinate.
(3) Obliterate or threaten to obliterate Israel. Israel has a limited nuclear retaliation capability, but if the survival of Russia is at stake, then a comprehensive Russian first will reduce if not destroy that capability. Meanwhile, the US will not be willing to commit nuclear suicide by retaliating for an attack on Israel. Especially when they see the full horror and suffering as demonstrated by the destruction of Israel. (And since Israel is behind all the violence in the Mideast, and the subversion of the US govt, all those problems will be swept away in a single stroke.)
Simply communicating this range of options to "the coalition" should be enough to dissuade them from going ahead with their war plan. If not, then option (1) should elimiate any notion of a Russian "bluff", and provide a second chance, a chance to rethink.



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